Climate and Security in Southern Africa: Pathways for Resilience and Peace

Southern Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. Over the past two decades, rising temperatures, declining precipitation, and extreme weather events such as droughts, flooding, and cyclones have dramatically affected people’s livelihoods and the overall well-being of societies. 

In the region, many countries face several socio-economic and political challenges that heighten vulnerability to climate change. With 45 per cent of the total population living below the poverty line and heavily dependent on subsistence food systems for livelihoods and economic stability, the compounding impacts of climate change intensify pressures across society. While rural communities are often the most directly affected, urban and peri-urban areas also experience the knock-on effects of adverse climate change impacts through economic shocks and job losses, food price spikes, and reduced access to energy, which, in some countries, is hydroelectric. Importantly, these climate-driven stresses feed into a declining economy, which, in turn, reduces the government’s capacity to provide for its citizens, adding pressure on basic services and environmental and social protection policies.

Despite significant societal transformations in Southern Africa driven by climate variability and extremes, there is a limited understanding of how these changes can erode social cohesion and undermine the stability and security of communities and societies. Consequently, resilience, peace and security continue to be treated in separate policy domains rather than interconnected priorities within climate governance frameworks. This fragmentation limits the effectiveness of adaptation and development interventions across Southern Africa. As climate risks increasingly shape livelihoods, migration, food systems and social stability, there is an urgent need for integrated climate-security policy approaches that recognise climate change not only as an environmental issue, but also as a governance, development and societal challenge.

To draw attention to these issues and explore how to address them, the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany, in partnership with the Southern African Hub of the CGIAR Climate Security at the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), organised a high-level conference in Johannesburg on the 10 of March 2026. The event was part of the Climate Talks, an instrument of the German Foreign Policy for fostering dialogue and exchange at the science-policy interface. Approximately 45 people attended the event, including researchers, policymakers, and practitioners from embassies, regional organisations, and UN agencies.

This article summarises the key insights from the discussion and outlines possible next steps for simultaneously pursuing resilience and peace amid an intensified polycrisis in the region.

Understanding the linkages 

The first panel at the conference brought together researchers and scholars from four Universities in Southern Africa to discuss how the linkages between climate, social cohesion and security manifest across the region. Perspectives from Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe were represented to capture the context-specific nature of these linkages. The presentations drew on research conducted by the CGIAR Climate Security Team in partnership with research institutions in the region over the past three years, providing an evidence-based foundation for the discussions. Taken together, it became evident that climate change is eroding the social fabric of communities and societies by exerting downward pressure on social cohesion, gender equality and vertical trust. In some cases, especially when combined with other socio-economic and political factors, this may escalate into increased tensions, heightening the risk of conflict and undermining people’s capacity to withstand and cope with climate-induced shocks.

For instance, in the Southern Provinces of Zambia, competition over access to and use of dwindling water resources has increased over the past few years due to a combination of erratic rainfall patterns and weak resource governance mechanisms. Thus, small-scale disputes are mounting between different water users, such as between cattle herders, as well as among women while queuing at the boreholes. At the same time, in South Africa’s Northern Cape, cattle rustling and conflicts over diminishing grazing land have emerged between pastoralist communities, with some of those escalating into violence and fatalities. 

Although migration is a common adaptive strategy, it is leading to localised conflicts in destination areas between migrants and host communities over food, water and employment opportunities. In Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, rural-to-urban migration has contributed to city overcrowding, mushrooming informal urban settlements, strained public infrastructure, and prompted grievances against authorities for failing to meet the basic needs of an increasingly large population. By contrast, in Zambia, the movement of farmers from the south to the north to overcome climate-induced agricultural hardship is triggering clashes over cultural values and traditional practices in agricultural production and knowledge systems.

Furthermore, extreme weather events are also contributing to amplifying existing conflict dynamics in the region. In the Cabo Delgado region of Mozambique, for instance, widespread road disruptions caused by cyclones have complicated the delivery of humanitarian assistance to affected populations. Such a gap has been exploited by insurgent groups to bolster support, acting as alternative service providers. Moreover, in climate-related displacement settings, youth have been particularly exposed to recruitment due to a mix of factors such as poverty, lack of employment opportunities in the legal market and limited institutional support.

Finally, the loss of agriculture-based livelihoods and resulting food and economic uncertainty are pushing people into harmful coping mechanisms, undermining societal cohesion and resilience. In Zimbabwe, people whose adaptive capacities have been exhausted are resorting to early marriage and girl child school dropout, illicit artisan mining and cattle rustling to make a living. In Zambia, charcoal production offers an alternative source of income despite the consequences for deforestation and biodiversity loss.

Overall, what emerged is that, while climate change alters the dynamics of societal interactions, it does so alongside context-specific factors that shape the nature and extent of climate-related security risks. Therefore, reflecting on and providing evidence for these nuances is crucial to continue building our collective understanding of the linkages between climate and security in Southern Africa, thereby better informing policy. 

Importantly, these findings raise critical questions for Africa’s climate policy architecture. Existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and regional climate strategies often insufficiently account for the social cohesion, migration, conflict and governance dimensions of climate change. Yet, as climate impacts intensify, these interconnected risks will increasingly shape development trajectories, political stability, and the achievement of Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals. Strengthening the integration of climate-security considerations into policy planning is therefore becoming a strategic imperative for African governments and regional institutions alike. 

How do we respond

In the second panel of the conference, scholars and practitioners from the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and The Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) were put in dialogue to reflect on how best to address the linkages between climate and security in the region. From a policy perspective, the panellists signposted the need to include conflict-sensitivity and social cohesion in climate action frameworks and strategies at sub-national, national and regional levels. While regional bodies such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) recognise that climate change is not only about mitigation and adaptation, they have yet to adequately engage with the challenges it may pose to social stability and security. As such, accounting for the social contexts in which climate action takes place would not only prevent these initiatives from exacerbating societal tensions but also strengthen their peace-contributing potential.

Another important priority that emerged is strengthening anticipatory action and social protection programmes to enhance the resilience of communities most at risk. As discussed, it is no longer sufficient to rely solely on reactive measures such as disaster relief or the declaration of states of emergency, as Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe did following prolonged droughts in 2024. Instead, proactive strategies that anticipate risks and provide early support are essential to reduce vulnerability and safeguard livelihoods through investment in disaster preparedness and adaptive capacity, including in social institutions that promote and sustain tolerance and social cohesion. Early warning mechanisms such as the AU’s Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) are crucial towards this aim and should be enhanced to provide integrated information on the linkages between climate and security that can feed into and inform policy processes.

Moreover, regional coordination and multilateral engagement are essential to effectively address the compounded challenges of climate and security, ensuring that responses are coherent, inclusive, and sustainable across the region. Firstly, policy and programmatic responses need to be grounded in locally generated evidence that reflects the lived experiences of communities and social groups affected by climate change. This can be achieved by promoting collaboration between research institutions and policymakers, for example, through the creation of regional platforms for knowledge exchange and resource pooling. Secondly, given that some international organisations, such as FAO, are already working to make climate action more conflict-sensitive and peace-responsive, creating a space for sharing experiences and lessons learned is of foremost importance. 

Moving ahead

Joint efforts and more holistic approaches that effectively combine climate change adaptation and peacebuilding objectives are key to pursuing peace and resilience in Southern Africa. Researchers, policymakers and practitioners all have an important role to play, and events like the Climate Talks offer an important outlet to foster this kind of dialogue towards more coordinated action. 

• National Governments: Integrate conflict-sensitive climate policies; invest in anticipatory action and social protection systems.
• Regional Bodies: Harmonise climate and security strategies; strengthen early warning systems.
• International Partners: Support conflict-sensitive programmes; facilitate platforms for sharing lessons learned.
• Research Institutions & Civil Society: Generate locally grounded evidence; promote participatory collaboration with policymakers and communities.

COP31: Why Africa Must Elevate Climate Security

The discussions from the Climate Talks come at a critical moment as the international community prepares for the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2026 in December 2026. For Africa, COP31 presents an important opportunity to elevate climate security, resilience, and adaptation financing within global climate negotiations.

African countries continue to contribute the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet they remain among the most exposed to climate-related vulnerabilities and instability. As climate impacts intensify across the continent, there is growing recognition that adaptation investments must go beyond infrastructure and agriculture alone to also strengthen governance systems, social cohesion, early warning systems, and community resilience.

Ahead of COP31, African policymakers, regional bodies, and development partners must therefore advocate for climate finance frameworks that explicitly support locally led adaptation, anticipatory action, peace-responsive programming, and resilient food systems. Equally important will be ensuring that Africa’s climate diplomacy reflects the interconnected realities of climate, livelihoods, migration, conflict, and human security.

The outcomes of COP31 could significantly shape the future of climate financing, adaptation priorities, and resilience-building efforts across Southern Africa and the continent more broadly.

The Climate Talks event was organised with the generous support of the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in South Africa and implemented as part of the CGIAR Science Programme on Climate Action.