Pavel Dorofeyev is about to get paid by the Vegas Golden Knights or elsewhere.
A massive pay raise is coming for the Knights’ leading goal scorer the last two years, as he gets set to enter restricted free agency on July 1.
When that is remains to be seen. The Knights don’t have to sign Dorofeyev when the clock hits 9 a.m. Wednesday and the market opens.
The complication is they may not have a choice.
The rise in the salary cap — with the upper limit set at $104 million — calls for potentially more offer sheets than in years past.
This year’s RFA class is stacked. Some young players will absolutely re-sign with their current clubs (Connor Bedard, Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson).
Others, like Dallas winger Jason Robertson, could be traded or re-sign a lucrative deal with the Dallas Stars.
Ever since the St. Louis Blues lured Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg away from Edmonton with offer sheets in 2024, there’s been an expectation that more are around the corner.
A nine-figure salary cap might be what triggers that.
General manager Kelly McCrimmon, when asked if he expects an offer sheet for Dorofeyev, said, “I’m not sure what the other 31 teams are going to do.”
How offer sheets work
It would be shocking if there wasn’t a market for Dorofeyev.
The 25-year-old has scored 72 goals in the last two seasons. Only 14 other players in the NHL have scored more than him. He became a better playmaker this season, and a reliable playoff performer.
The Knights have until 2 p.m. Monday to present Dorofeyev with a qualifying offer — a guaranteed deal to hold on to their negotiating rights. Dorofeyev’s would be worth $1.5 million and it can’t be signed until July 1.
If an offer sheet comes, the Knights can match or take the draft compensation that comes with it.
AFP Analytics projects Dorofeyev at a six-year extension worth a cap hit of approximately $8.98 million. Short-term, Dorofeyev is projected at two years with an average annual value of $6.2 million.
In short, not cheap.
If a team offered Dorofeyev at the near-$9 million, that team would need to give the Knights a first-, second- and third-round selection. The Knights would have seven days to match or decline.
Dorofeyev made $1.835 million last year. There’s no question a huge raise is coming. Can Nevada’s lack of income tax bring the number down? The Knights have hit the sweet spots before with deals in the past.
What if the Knights don’t match?
But if it’s too rich for the Knights’ blood, do they replenish the draft pick cupboard and start over? That might be tough to handle.
There might not be time like in years past to make those decisions, especially with how other teams know the Knights are strapped against the cap.
They’re heading into July 1 with $4.625 million in cap space, according to PuckPedia, committed to nine forwards, five defensemen and two goalies.
Add $8.8 million of that to Alex Pietrangelo likely landing on long-term injured reserve, and that will give the Knights $13.425 million in cap space.
How much of that goes to Rasmus Andersson is the lingering question between now and July 1. The Knights are expected to bring back the defenseman, and the price tag is expected to be anywhere between $8 million and $9 million.
That decision needs to be made before Andersson hits the open market on July 1 — unless Andersson can wait out a little longer to allow McCrimmon to materialize the necessary moves to create that extra space.
Teams who could make an offer
Does a team like the Pittsburgh Penguins try to make a splash with nearly $38 million in cap space and every available draft pick needed if not matched?
What if the Nashville Predators move Jonathan Marchessault, get off his contract and go all-in on a much younger replacement?
The Carolina Hurricanes? Surely, the Stanley Cup champions don’t need Dorofeyev. They have the money and draft picks, though. They were involved in a petty war with the Montreal Canadiens twice over, starting in 2019 with Sebastian Aho and in 2021 with Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
This offseason has already been a wild one with trades galore across the league. There’s no reason to expect the signings portion won’t reach those same levels.
Dorofeyev will be among those names at the top if he makes it that far.
Contact Danny Webstert at dwebster@reviewjournal.com. Follow @DannyWebster21 on X.
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