Bitcoin has broken above the bearish pennant in an unprecedented turn of events. This move was quite surprising considering there was confluence of resistance zones and also because bearish pennants are usually broken to the downside. If we take a look at the definition of a bear pennant, it is pennant that results in the price breaking to the downside soon as it exits it. A pennant is a continuation pattern. So, if the price is going up before it enters a pennant, it is likely to keep going up after it exits the pennant. Similarly, when the price is going down as it enters a pennant; it is likely to keep going down after it breaks out of the pennant. This has already happened two times in the recent past but this time the price has invalidated classical technical analysis because the price is now at a turning point and the stakes are too high.
If we take a look at the 4H chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the price just shot past the 50 EMA. This happened because it was too obvious and a lot of bears had their stops just above the 50 EMA in anticipation of the pennant breaking to the downside. Needless to say, most of them were shaken out and I think this is what this move was all about. This is in no way an indication of real buying interest in the market. I think it is just manipulation because the whales had two pronged objectives here. They wanted to shake out the bears and they want to trap the bulls that took this is a sign of a bullish reversal. They are going to give the longs more time to stack up and then they are going to ‘help’ the market do the inevitable and a lot of these bulls will be either liquidated or left holding the bags.
It is interesting to note that the last time Bitcoin (BTC) invalided a bearish pennant was in December, 2018. I think the fact that we have seen a move similar to December, 2018 is not just coincidence. Over the next few days you will find posts on Crypto Twitter saying that “when Bitcoin invalidated the bear pennant last time, it ended up rallying hard as it ended up shooing past $13k.” This is what the market makers want them to believe. They want them to believe that they will come to their rescue again to ‘help’ the price rally higher again with Tether pumps. This is why some analysts and traders are now talking about the “bull flag” on the daily chart but they won’t go back in time to see how that ended back in 2017-18 when everyone was expecting that “bull flag” to lead to the price rallying towards $50,000. I think times like these calls for less greed and more caution. If you want to protect your investment, this might be the time to do it, because in the upcoming days and weeks, it might be a little too late.