Bitcoin (BTC) remains at sharp risk of a decline below $10,000. We are very close to seeing a break out of the symmetrical triangle. Those that are bearish expect this break to the downside and those that are bullish expect it to be to the upside. Regardless of that, the breakout is going to happen soon. The price is currently trading below key resistance levels and before it breaks past those levels we have no reason to be bullish. As we can see on the 4H chart for BTC/USD, the price is trading well below the 38.2% fib retracement level from a local high at the top of the symmetrical triangle. If this level is breached, we would expect a move towards the 61.8% fib retracement level but there is a very low probability of that happening.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of extreme weakness but the market makers have other plans for the market for now. They want to trap in as many bulls as possible. More importantly, they want to trap altcoin bulls and that is why we have a favorable funding rate to long Ethereum (ETH) compared to Bitcoin (BTC). The RSI on the 4H time frame shows that we are likely to see a sharp move to the downside follow from here but the market is stalling that move while traders have become all excited about an altcoin season once again. It doesn’t take much to see how all of this is going to end considering that people are bullish on altcoins while Bitcoin (BTC) is falling. This shows just how much of bullish optimism currently exists in the market which means that there is a lot more blood to come when the market makers turn towards them.
So far, the market makers have been targeting the bears. The price took quite a while to decline but the big move on the 15 min chart for BTC/USD shows us that it only took two candles to wipe out all the bearish gains. It also ended up running stops of aggressive bears that were hoping the price would break below the symmetrical triangle right away. All of this naked manipulation is a testament to the fact that the cryptocurrency market is very immature at the moment and is not ready for institutional investment any time soon.
The only institutions in this market are the market makers who should be providing liquidity to the market but in the absence of regulations, they not only illegally steer the direction of the market but run your stops with naked manipulation. For the experienced trader, this is a blessing because they can spot these moves from afar and profit off it. However, for the inexperienced traders this is a painful experience. Even institutional investors cannot put up with any of this which is why we keep seeing institutions like JP Morgan postponing plans to trade cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to see further downside from here if it fails to climb above the trend line support turned resistance. The rest of the market is very likely to follow soon afterwards despite the temporary manipulation.