The forecast shows Dorian’s chances of coming to the Florida coast as a hurricane are increasing. But when will the state start to feel the bad weather?

The forecast shows Dorian’s chances of coming to the Florida coast as a hurricane are increasing. But when will the state start to feel the bad weather?

National Hurricane Center

The forecast shows Dorian’s chances of coming to the Florida coast as a hurricane are increasing. But when will the state start to feel the bad weather?

Most likely by the weekend, the National Weather Service says.

But forecasters say it’s still too early to know exactly how — or where — Florida will be affected. What they do know is the storm could bring heavy rain up and down the state over the weekend. That’s just in time for the second King Tide of the season, a higher than usual high tide that usually brings intense flooding to low-lying regions.

Tropical Storm Dorian is near St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands and is forecast to become a hurricane later Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It may develop into a major hurricane by the time it nears Florida’s east coast by Monday.

The forecast shows possible tropical storm and hurricane conditions are likely Saturday and Sunday, depending on where you live in the state.

As of Wednesday, Miami-Dade County and the Keys have a 50 to 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week with possible “Tropical Storm Conditions” Sunday. Broward County has slightly higher rain chances between 50 and 70 percent and may see tropical storm conditions Saturday and Sunday.

Those living closer to Florida’s east coast, including West Palm Beach, may have possible tropical storm conditions Saturday and possible hurricane conditions Sunday.

The Gulf Coast will also be seeing heavy showers.

The Bradenton, Sarasota and Tampa areas can expect 50 to 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week, with possible tropical storm conditions Sunday, according to the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.

The detailed forecasts — which include precipitation chances — are considering the storm’s potential impact, but are also looking at wind speed possibilities, according to Robert Molleda, a meteorologist for the service’s South Florida office.

The forecasts will most likely change based on how the storm progresses in the next few days, he said — so Floridians shouldn’t get too comfortable even if the rain chances are looking favorable for your area.

Orlando, for example, has a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday despite having possible tropical storm conditions, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne. Sunday, which is when the area may have possible hurricane conditions, may see a 80 percent chance of rain.

Based on Dorian’s current track, those living in upper North Florida, around Tallahassee, will be getting soaked with rain all week and into early next week, according to the forecast, but won’t necessarily see any possible tropical storm or hurricane conditions.

But the National Hurricane Center is asking people not to focus on Dorian’s exact track, to keep checking local media outlets and weather offices for the latest information, and to make sure they have a hurricane plan in place.

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Real Time/Breaking News Reporter. There’s never a dull moment in Florida — and I cover it. Graduated with honors from Florida International University. Find me on Twitter @TweetMichelleM





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