Ethereum (ETH) breaks a critical support against Bitcoin (BTC) and has now put itself in deep trouble. The price could decline sharply from its current levels if ETH/BTC closes the week below this support. This bearish close would completely shatter all hopes of an altcoin season. Some analysts are looking at falling altcoin dominance and they are linking it with what happened last time before the beginning of the altcoin season. However, they so conveniently ignore that altcoin dominance declined in the same way during July 2014 and we saw what happened to the price after that. See, the game here is that the market makers want to shape the narrative but at the same time they don’t want spooking the horse.
So, first they will make you believe the price is following the last cycle. A lot of people get onboard and buy into that narrative. Then when everyone is so convinced that the price is indeed following the last cycle, they try to create doubts as to whether or not it is following that cycle. Then they make the retail traders believe that we are in the 2015 part of the cycle. When they buy into the hype, they are made to realize that we are in fact in the 2014 part of the cycle. You see how this is working? It’s a slow bleed or a systemic dumping of the coins on naïve retail traders. So, how are they going to make them believe that we are in the 2014 part of the cycle now? Well, there are a lot of clues in the charts as we have discussed over and over again in our previous analyses but those are implicit clues; they have to throw in some explicit clues. One of such clues is that the months in the 2014 cycle as well as that in 2015 are beginning to align.
In July of 2014, the market took a turn for the downside and we saw the beginning of a new downtrend soon afterwards. If we take a look at the above chart for ETH/USD, we can see that the same thing is going on this time. The price has taken a turn to the downside in July and is expected to continue to decline in the months ahead. Eventually, the market makers rely on obvious clues because that is what helps achieve their objectives and makes acceptance of their narrative easier. Just as traders put a lot of emphasis on halvening, they are now likely to put a lot of emphasis on what happened during each of these months during the 2014-15 part of the cycle.
The market makers want retail traders knowing about what is going on but only when it is too late. They don’t want them knowing beforehand because then there would be nobody for them to prey on. This space is far more corrupted and polluted than anything I have seen in my entire trading career. The number of people that swing the price up and down could fit in a room. Chasing the price to the upside here or buying the dip is a terrible thing to do from a risk/reward standpoint especially now that Ethereum (ETH) has broken a key support against Bitcoin (BTC) and shattered all hopes of an altcoin season.