Ethereum (ETH) is finally close to its next big move that we have been waiting to come to fruition for weeks. The symmetrical triangle on the 4H chart will now either see a sharp breakout to the upside or to the downside. Considering that the cryptocurrency market is still due for another downtrend and the condition of the Stochastic RSI and RSI for ETH/USD on the 4H chart, I’m inclined to believe that we are very likely to break to the downside. The price remains below the 38.2% fib retracement level despite numerous attempts to break out. As long as that is the case, I have no reason to be bullish on Ethereum (ETH) or any other cryptocurrencies.
Many traders are waiting for a trend reversal at this point but I think it might turn out of be very risky as we do not know where the floor is. If the price starts to decline from here, I would not be surprised to see it crash below even $155 during the next downtrend. I am open to the possibility of the price breaking the symmetrical triangle to the upside but I would consider that to be a fake out and an opportunity to add to short positions. In any case, I would be very surprised to see the price closing above the 61.8% fib retracement level on the daily time frame. In my opinion, we are close to seeing the current move coming to fruition with the price completing a big move to the downside. This next move is what is very likely to turn the sentiment bearish once again and I think that would be a point to expect a short term trend reversal.
The daily chart for Ethereum dominance (ETH.D) is an even better indicator of what is likely to follow in the near future. If the rising wedge breaks to the downside as I expect it to, then we have a very high probability of the altcoin market experiencing some serious pain. RSI on the daily chart for Ethereum dominance points to a similar outcome. We are now very close to seeing a breakout in ETH/USD but if we link this chart with the ETH/USD chart, we get the complete picture and that is the strong probability of the beginning of a new downtrend from here.
Ethereum (ETH) and other cryptocurrencies are long way from breaking out of the current bear market just yet. In my opinion, we are in the second half of the ongoing bear market and there is no reason to be bullish on Ethereum (ETH) or other altcoins as long as the market has not made the inevitable moves to the downside. Everyone is looking to buy the dip but most of you who have been around since 2014 or before would know that this is now what it feels like when the market bottoms. No one wants to buy the dip thinking it is the end and that is when the next cycle actually begins.