New world order would require U.S. curtail its penchant for unilater…

By Don Menzel

The American-led liberal world order that has brought peace (end of Cold War) and prosperity (think China) to much of the world is now in jeopardy of collapsing. President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has left no doubt about the failure of a rule-driven future forged by the U.S. Such a future has been and will be, in his judgment, for the benefit of the U.S. and Western allies. The Ukraine invasion snapped the rules that have calmed international affairs over the past 75 years.

But where are we heading now? No one knows, of course, but there is much speculation. Is a return to the status quo possible? No, not likely as Russian President Putin has made it clear that international borders are meaningless. And, China blames the U.S. and allies for motivating President Putin to break the rules.

One ill-gotten path to a new world order is a return to what international realists call the “jungle,” a geo-political environment where the strong prevail over the weak. Robert Kagan tells us that “there are signs all around us today that the jungle is growing back. Nations are reverting to old habits and traditions.” Short of a significant international re-engaged United States to counter aggressive behavior, is there a way to stop the jungle from growing back? Probably not as Chinese leaders and Putin loudly proclaim, “the United States is in a state of terminal decline.” This view, they assert, is a straightforward matter of documented history about the decline of great empires.

Yet another road to the future is the Chinese vision of a world order. Central to the Chinese model is the belief that a state-directed authoritarian approach is more likely to bring prosperity and social equity to nations than a democratic approach. After all, China’s leaders ask, take one look at the chaos and violence surrounding the Jan. 6 insurrection in the U.S.: “Is that the promise of democracy?” Moreover, they assert quite publicly that the slow, lumbering work of a democracy is not the efficient, effective problem solver the Chinese state authoritarian model offers. This view, of course, is arguable, especially considering the failed Chinese COVID response that has bedeviled the country.

Is a return to an American-led liberal world order a dead-end? Is there no road out of the jungle or one that does not travel an authoritarian path? Yes, there is a way in which the liberal world order can be strengthened, not simply restored. Proponents (see Daalder and Lindsay in Foreign Affairs) contend that the rules-based order can be saved by creating a new world group that would bring together the United States and its allies in Asia, Europe and North America. The G-12, to give it a name, would require the U.S. to curtail its penchant for unilateralism, listen as well as talk, and give as well as demand. Asian and European allies would need to accept more responsibility and overcome their tendency to free-ride on U.S. coattails. The current G-7 collection (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) would be expanded to G-12 consisting of Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and the EU plus NATO for all security-related discussions.

The G-12’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine acknowledges that “all recognize that their security and prosperity rest on finding ways to avoid returning to a world in which brute force replaces the rule of law.” G-12 members would bring together the resources of the world’s most powerful and advanced democracies to defend the rules-based order. Of course, China and Russia will recognize G-12 as a means of countering their power and will redouble their efforts to undermine the rules-based order. But does that mean the G-12 approach won’t work? No.

The formation of a G-12 will be a formidable task, but it promises to offer a future that Daalder and Lindsay believe “respects the sovereignty of large and small countries alike, adherence to the rule of law, support for democracy and human rights, and a commitment to the peaceful settlement of disputes.” This path may be the West’s best chance to forge a new, better world order.

Don Menzel studied political science at Penn State. He resides in Loveland.