Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio should win a third term in the Senate, according to polling firm Victory Insights. But even a week out from the election, his lead over Democrat Val Demings falls within polling’s margin of error.
The pollster, which has an office in Naples, finds almost 50% of likely Florida voters plan to vote for Rubio in the General Election. Under 46% intend to support Demings. Nearly 5% remain undecided, but if those numbers prove true, Demings would need to bring in all those voters and then would win only by inches.
Ultimately, simulations run by the company predict Rubio will come out ahead by 4 percentage points.
But the incumbent’s lead falls well within the poll’s 4.8-percentage-point margin of error.
Pollsters conducted the survey between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1, closing responses a week before Election Day. A total of 500 individuals’ results were included. The sample is based on a Republican-leaning electorate, with 43% Republican respondents, 38% Democrat and 19% no-party or third-party voters.
Notably, the same poll shows Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis with a much more comfortable lead over Democrat Charlie Crist.
But there does seem to be a general preference for Republicans. Pollsters conducted a general congressional ballot test, and more than 45% of voters statewide intend to support Republican candidates for U.S. House, while under 40% plan to vote Democrat; the remaining 15% remained uncommitted.
That’s notable, as independents surveyed tend to break Democratic if they have a partisan preference at all. About 37% of no-party and small party voters say they tend to support Democrats when they vote, while just 25% tend to swing Republican. But 38% prefer neither major party.
A majority of voters, about 53% hold the Democratic Party responsible for rapid inflation and increased prices, while 47% blame Republicans.
The poll also suggested less potency than Democrats might prefer on the issue of abortion. More than 40% of voters consider themselves pro-choice, more than the 35% who consider themselves pro-life. But nearly 25% of voters place themselves “in between” those extremes on the issue of abortion.
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