The five day tropical weather outlook on Saturday morning, Aug. 24, 2019, shows two systems in the Atlantic, Disturbance 1 closest to Florida. Both stand good chances of becoming named storms Dorian and Erin over the weekend.
National Hurricane Center
This weekend could introduce Dorian and Erin to storm watchers in Florida, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico and the east coast of the U.S.
Chances are that good to see two named storms as Atlantic systems continue to churn and bring bouts of wet weather to parts of the state and the Bahamas’ island chain.
The National Hurricane Center upgraded a small area of low pressure that was about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands to Tropical Depression 5 Saturday morning at 11:20.
This area of disturbed weather, currently 800 miles east-southeast of Barbados, is forecast to become a tropical storm Sunday and a hurricane by Wednesday — threatening Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic by mid-week.
This system was earlier referred by the center as “Disturbance 2.”
There is now a new “Disturbance 2” that formed Saturday morning just off the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts that is given a 10% chance of developing this weekend and over the next five days.
Tropical Depression 5 is now a growing concern for people in the central and northern Lesser Antilles islands, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning. The center urged residents to monitor the depression’s progress as tropical storm conditions could begin as soon as Monday evening in those areas.”
Winds in Depression 5 are at 35 mph and the system is moving west at 12 mph.
The system is forecast to become a tropical storm — Dorian — Sunday and a hurricane Wednesday morning. The forecast track shows it approaching near Puerto Rico as a hurricane by Thursday morning and then the Dominican Republic.
After that, conditions appear less favorable for development when that low reaches the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea, according to the Saturday morning advisory.
The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore urged residents in the Bahamas to keep an eye on this disturbance.
As for Disturbance 1 — the one bringing rain and storms to parts of South Florida since Friday — including a waterspout in the Aventura area Friday night — it’s going to keep Saturday and possibly parts of Sunday, ones for staying inside. Catching up on a new book, cleaning house, or a TV binge could be your best bet.
Or, be in Bradenton where a high of 92 degrees will be what you are talking about Saturday. Rain chances in the Tampa Bay-Sarasota area are only 20% with only isolated thunderstorms through the weekend.
Otherwise, this broad area of low pressure inland over South Florida is producing plenty of “disorganized” showers and thunderstorms, extending eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters.
While this means more rain in the Florida Keys, South Florida and Orlando, according to the National Weather Service in Miami, “significant development” of the wave is unlikely Saturday while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida peninsula, the hurricane center said.
Though Orlando is in the forecast area for Saturday’s thunderstorms, gusty winds and lightning strikes from this low pressure system, Saturday night’s Miami Hurricanes-University of Florida football season opener at Camping World Stadium should be OK weather-wise by game time.
The National Weather Service has rain chances at 20% Saturday evening in Orlando, while The Weather Channel forecasts partly cloudy skies and a 15% chance of rain. And AccuWeather has a 24% chance of thunderstorms and 77 degrees at kickoff.
Once the system moves off the east-central coast of Florida, however, environmental conditions work in its favor.
A tropical or subtropical depression is 70% likely to form by Monday and then grow into a 90% chance of development over the next five days. But at that point, if it is named — likely Dorian unless Disturbance 2 gets a name first upon which the second named storm would be Erin — the system will have moved northeastward offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast.
No matter what happens with Disturbance 1 as it flirts with Florida, heavy rains, leading to more floods on saturated grounds, are expected over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through Sunday, with patches of clear, sunny skies.
Highs in the upper 80s in South Florida.
By mid week the typical summer pattern should resume in South Florida and Bradenton, the National Weather Service says.