Tropical disturbance now has 60% chance of developing, NHC says

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – The National Hurricane Center is now giving a disturbance in the tropics a 60 percent chance of developing.

Storm Team 8 started tracking the tropical disturbance over the weekend. The NHC initially gave it just a low 30 percent chance of developing, but in an outlook sent out Monday afternoon they bumped it up to 60 percent.

According to the NHC, environmental conditions are only “marginally conducive” for development. But forecasters say a slight increase in organization of the system could result in the formation of a tropical depression by Monday night. If a tropical depression does form, the NHC does not expect any additional development because of strong upper-level winds.

The system is currently located near Andros Island in the Bahamas. The NHC says it is expected to move northwest Monday and Tuesday. It will remain offshore of the east coast of Florida.

The disturbance is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over parts of the northwest Bahamas through Monday night. The NHC says showers and thunderstorms could also spread over parts of the east coast of Florida through Tuesday.

The NHC gives the system a 60 percent chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a 60 percent chance of formation within the next five days.