Bitcoin (BTC) closed the day below the 50 day EMA but something very interesting happened soon afterwards. The price shot up through the 50 day EMA and has now made the bulls hoping for a bullish continuation. It is important to note here that BTC/USD ended up closing above the 38.2% fib extension level from the all-time high which is a bullish sign that means that the bulls might be in control for the time being. If we take a look at the daily chart, we can see that the price made two consecutive closes below the 50 Day EMA. However, the recent close was in the green which invalidated the bearish continuation and that is why we saw the price begin the next day in green.
All that being said, BTC/USD has begun the day in green but for what? Do I trust this rally? No, not at all. Did I expect it to happen? Yes. There was a possibility that this might happen because here is the thing, the market makers are either greedy or they are fearful. When they are greedy, they are looking to do some hunting to both sides. Considering that the Fear and Greed Index was at a level of extreme fear, this meant that the market makers could shake out some aggressive bears while trapping in more bulls at the same time before the next downtrend. If the market makers were fearful, we would have seen the price tank hard to discourage shorts from stacking up. If we take a look at the daily chart for Ethereum (ETH), we can see that the price closed in the red below the 200 day EMA but it has now climbed above the 200 day EMA.
We expected this move but the probability of this happening would have been higher if EUR/USD had begun an uptrend. Considering that we have not seen that happen, this move is more likely to be a result of just temporary stop hunting. Bitcoin (BTC) is just stalling a move to the downside. This could go on for a few days but this is not a sign of bullish reversal in the market. If we take a look at ETH/USD, we can see that the price is in large bear flag that could soon lead to significant further downside. Currently, the 38.2% fib extension level is what is keeping BTC/USD from its next major fall. Soon as that happens, we will see the beginning of the next downtrend which will be a lot more aggressive than anything we have seen in the recent past.